Sunday, May 1, 2016

Cruz could win even if Trump gets magical 1,237 delegates!

The media and #Nevertrump crowd are not thinking very open-minded about the potential Republican contested convention.  First, there's this notion that if Trump gets 1,237 delegates "won" during the primary/caucus/convention process, then he wins.  If not, then no candidate will get a majority in the first ballot of the RNC, and Ted Cruz would have a big advantage because the actual people who atre the voting delegates support him over Trump.  This would be due to the Cruz campaign doing the hard political work during the selection process that Trump neglected to do, and also because the base of the party simply supports Cruz over Trump.

But this is all actually not true!

This is what many of the elites both political and press want to be true, but they themselves report its not true if you listen close.  What they're doing is defining the process of what they will declare as legitimate.  That's why others need to counter their bias.

The truth is before the convention begins, the rules committee, made up of select delegates from each state will determine every rule for THIS YEAR'S convention!  The media is talking about prior conventions.  Usually the rules are reaffirmed each time, but this is a time when that very well might not happen.

After this committee recommends, all the delegates vote to accept the
Rules on Day 1 of the convention.  Then, the rules are set for 2016.

So as of today, THERE ARE NO RULES!

I suggest that the rules be:

1. First ballot 67% to end process and declare winner
2.  Second ballot 60% to end process and declare a winner
3.  Third ballot and beyond, 50% to win.

You might think this not democratic right? To demand a candidate get 2/3 of the delegates?  But remember, this whole process was never designed to be democratic.  Our country and the Republican Party process was designed to be REPUBLICAN or indirect democracy rather than majority rules. Thst's how we have an electoral college in the first place.  At our country's founding, the state legislators voted for our President.  As the years wore on, the process has become more transparent and democratic but not completely.  To this day, the winner of the popular vote can lose the election.

I chose 2/3 on 1st ballot because those are the thresholds we have for very important changes in our country.  A Constitutional amendment can't be passed by majority vote in Congress.  Same for over-riding a Presidentsl veto, or removal from office after impeachment.

I chose 60% on 2nd ballot because almost every major legislation in the Congress needs 60 votes to break filibuster from the minority.  Once again this is important to ensure the idea has broad support or is at least not totally objectionable to a significant minority.

Then a simple majority after that doe obvious reasons.

Realize under most normal circumstances these proposed rules changes wouldn't change much because most nominations are unanimous.  The question is what should parties do when significant numbers disagree with the leading vote getter.

This forces the leading vote getter in a contested convention to actually work hard to secure the votes of the actual people rather than an automatic delegate process.

It's said that Cruz has enough support from the delegates to win on a 2nd ballot, based on current rules.  If that's so, these delegates can write rules to make that a reality.

The media needs to recognize this as a legitimate election outcome, and get the public ready for it.
And Trump's whining.

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