NC: Hagan wins. She's been even or ahead for awhile in a Republican year. No reason to think she won't bring it home in a state that has a history of electing Democrats sometimes.
Georgia: Perdue wins. This is a Red state that will elect a Republican in a contested race. Nunn's only chance would be to have a "local" election that is about the Republican. Not so, this one is nationalized. I predict no runoff.
Alaska: Sillivan wins. Begich barely won last time against sacandal-plagued Ted Stevens. That was in a more favorable year for Democrats. This time Republicans will unite to win this seat easily.
Iowa: Braley wins. Democrats have the advantage when there's early voting because they can get "unlikely" voters easier. Plus Iowa doesn't elect females too quickly. Iowa is more blue than red in a contested national race.
Arkansas: Pryor wins. He is the more natural southern candidate of the two. He has a family history. Pryor has the Clintons to help him.
Kentucku: McConnell wins. He is the more natural fit. The state hates Obama, and Grimes is with Obama. No way a conservative state ousts the Republican leader in a Republican year.
Col: Udall wins. Early voting, "unlikely" voters. Any close race in this state go with the Democrat.
NH: Shaheen wins. She has been winning all along. She has deep ties to the state. Brown lost in Mass, but win in NH? Not buying it.
La:runnoff. if seat is needed for senate control Cassidy wins, otherwise Landreui wins. Once the election doesn't matter much, Landreui calls in favors and her machine matters. I predict Dems win Senate on election night so this runoff will be low turnout and intensity. Democrat wins.
So Democrats hold Senate easily.
Republicans gain 18 house seats even though nationwide Democrats will lose generic vote by less than 1 point.
Mass gov: Baker wins. No one likes Coakley. She will have lost 2 winnable races for Democrats. She is only good in low intensity elections.
Wi gov: Walker wins. Off year elections, Democratic leaning voters drop off. It will only be close because Unions hate Walker so much.
Fl gov: Crist wins. Obama won twice, Nelson has won. I think Dems have put more effort to winning this. Toughest call, but I made it!
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
Mark Warner won - debate
Opening statements. Tie. Republican Ed Gillespie's Obama-Warner mantra was effective. Democrat Mark Warner's America first versus a partisan warrior matched him.
Q1. Warner. - who would've believed 10 years ago that the moderate Democrat would go on the offensive in Virginia on gay marriage? Warner proudly went to Gillespie's left. the republican answer made no sense; the courts have taken Virginia's ability to decide gay marriage away, so for him to say he accepts the Supreme Court's action (letting an appeals court ruling establishing gay marrisge in all 10th circuit states) and is against a federal amendment because he supports state's rights was ridiculous. (I wish the Republicans would fight gay marriage the way they have Obamacare. sadly it
seems they've given up and sold out traditional values
Q2. Warner - both were hawkish on Syria , Gillespie charged that the military was cut too much. Warner claimed he worked to fix that with specific plans and voted for both sides plan to stop defense cuts. Gillespie could have won by saying "this is typical Washington, Warner voted to cut defense, and now wants you to think he's against those cuts. I would never vote for any deal that cuts defense like he did" (I think the U.S. spends waaay too much on the military)
Enough of this, the republicans are going to lose this race. On Q3 Gillespie again is talkin like a liberal. He needs to hold the center-right , but he's apprsling to the center left. Warner has that locked down and is encroaching on the center - right. Gillespie is debating like he has his right solidified, and he clearly doesn't. Warner by temperament and votes has proven to be Republican friendly.
Republicans should be running a base election in Virginia where they appeal to the hardcore to outnumber the left. It can work in 2014 because they will outnumber moderates and liberals. Probably not in 2016, but that's not today.