Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Election predictions!

US Senate:

NC:  Hagan wins.  She's been even or ahead for awhile in a Republican year.  No reason to think she won't bring it home in a state that has a history of electing Democrats sometimes.

Georgia:  Perdue wins.  This is a Red state that will elect a Republican in a contested race.  Nunn's only chance would be to have a "local" election that is about the Republican.  Not so, this one is nationalized. I predict no runoff.

Alaska:  Sillivan wins.  Begich barely won last time against sacandal-plagued Ted Stevens.  That was in a more favorable year for Democrats.  This time Republicans will unite to win this seat easily.

Iowa:  Braley wins.  Democrats have the advantage when there's early voting because they can get "unlikely" voters easier.  Plus Iowa doesn't elect females too quickly. Iowa is more blue than red in a contested national race.

Arkansas:  Pryor wins.  He is the more natural southern candidate of the two.  He has a family history.  Pryor has the Clintons to help him.

Kentucku:  McConnell wins.  He is the more natural fit.  The state hates Obama, and Grimes is with Obama.  No way a conservative state ousts the Republican leader in a Republican year.

Col:  Udall wins.  Early voting, "unlikely" voters.  Any close race in this state go with the Democrat.


NH: Shaheen wins.  She has been winning all along.  She has deep ties to the state.  Brown lost in Mass, but win in NH? Not buying it.

La:runnoff.  if seat is needed for senate control Cassidy wins, otherwise Landreui wins.  Once the election doesn't matter much, Landreui calls in favors and her machine matters.  I predict Dems win Senate on election night so this runoff will be low turnout and intensity.  Democrat wins.

So Democrats hold Senate easily.
Republicans gain 18 house seats even though nationwide Democrats will lose generic vote by less than 1 point.

EXTRAS:

Mass gov:  Baker wins.  No one likes Coakley.  She will have lost 2 winnable races for Democrats. She is only good in low intensity elections.

Wi gov: Walker wins.  Off year elections, Democratic leaning voters drop off.  It will only be close because Unions hate Walker so much.

Fl gov:  Crist wins.  Obama won twice, Nelson has won. I think Dems have put more effort to winning this.  Toughest call, but I made it!

Liberal science deniers

Democrats and Liberals are prone to attack Republicans and conservatives of being anti-science.  This charge is both on the political side and ideological.

For example, politically it has been popular for Republicans to call for travel bans to/from West Africa to "protect" the US from ebola.  Science and logic say this is not a good idea.

Republicans have been against the science of Climate change for various ideological reasons.  Principally , they don't want to deal with the proposed solutions, whether they be higher taxes, government regulations, or changes in our lifestyle.

That's all fine, I might agree or disagree with the above but what about the Liberal Truthers on gay marriage?

Science says that a males-female relationship is better, more valuable, and more natural than any other because of the reproductive capacity.  We're all here because of  1 man and 1 woman.

Yet liberals insist that. Male-male or female-femsle relationships are totally equal and demand our laws reflect that.

THIS IS ANTI-SCIENCE

to insist that unequals are in fact equal is a rejection of logic and science, no matter how many people agree.

We need more Democrats against gay marriage

Saturday, October 25, 2014

But.....It might be true

Even as he was named SEC co-defensive player of the year, Michael Sam knew he wasn't good enough to play in the NFL on the merits.  So he announced he was gay to get media attention and advocacy on his side.   Were  he a legitimate 1st round prospect he would have been silent on his sexual proclivities.   Now the Rams have confirmed Sam's insecurity by cutting him from camp and not offering a practice squad spot.  And the Cowboys have followed suit.  Who will be next to offer a marginal talent another chance.  Remember Tim tebow has been on the shelf for awhile now, even after he proved he had value.

The interesting question is why one of the legitimate players won't announce themselves as gay?   It is virtually illegal to criticize them.  The media will celebrate them.  They would open themselves up to so much more revenue from book deals to sponsorships.

It must be that athletes aren't as accepting as we think, and the pressure on the gay players would be so overbearing.

This is a good thing, I wonder if this could be a wedge somehow to reverse this wave of gay rights and friendliness?  It really is a long shot.��

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Can you protest police brutality against blacks seriously, and love "Hot Nigga"?

I love the song, "Hot Nigga" by Bobby Smurda.


I also abhor police brutality against blacks.

These two conflict with each other.

"Hot Nigga" was THE hit of the summer 2014.  Currently it is a top 3 rap song, Top 12 pop song.  The "Schmoney dance" by the same Bobby Smurda is the latest hip hop dance craze.

Much of trap music (hip hop music that graphic details life growing up in poverty, crime, and other tragic circumstances, usually from a criminal perspective) touches on the same themes as "Hot Nigga" but this song takes it to the next level:  no pretense and no ambiguity about celebrating being a thug.  The radio industry has embraced the song in a disturbing way.  There's no discussion, condemnation, just a hit record.

I'm sure I'll hear: "it's art", "Smurda is telling you his story", and so on.

But if that's true, then why are so-called gay bashing lyrics taboo? banned? not ok? 

We as a society are promoting this violence through the music.  Then police officers and others make rational (pre)judgements about these individuals (and those who associate with them in one way or another) and we act as though THEY'RE THE CRAZY ONES!

Again, I'm saddened and maddened by all violence.  Street crime, black on black crime, domestic violence, and police brutality.

Notice how I listed the police brutality last? 

We've glorified hip hop thuggery, so far that it is now mainstream.  And the artists and  consumers are now determined to "keep it real" more than ever.  That this lifestyle being portrayed isn't a game, they are for real.

Well others outside this culture are getting the same message, and responding rationally.

Rational doesn't mean they're right to shoot quicker.
But it is understandable.
Many of the same people complaining against unjustified police shootings of black men would do the same thing if put in the same position.  That is one of the solutions to always make sure the police reflect the population they are serving.

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Who won Virginia Senate Debate?

Mark Warner won - debate

Opening statements.  Tie.   Republican Ed Gillespie's Obama-Warner  mantra was effective.  Democrat Mark Warner's America first versus a partisan warrior matched him.

Q1.    Warner. - who would've believed 10 years ago that the moderate Democrat would go on the offensive in Virginia on gay marriage?  Warner proudly went to Gillespie's left. the republican answer made no sense; the courts have taken Virginia's ability to decide gay marriage away, so for him to say he accepts the  Supreme Court's action (letting an appeals court ruling establishing gay marrisge in all 10th circuit states) and is against a federal amendment because he supports state's rights was ridiculous. (I wish the Republicans would fight gay marriage the way they have Obamacare.  sadly it
seems they've given up and sold out traditional values 

Q2.   Warner - both were hawkish on Syria , Gillespie charged that the military was cut too much. Warner claimed he worked to fix that with specific plans and voted for both sides plan to stop defense cuts.  Gillespie could have won by saying "this is typical Washington, Warner voted to cut defense, and now wants you to think he's against those cuts.  I would never vote for any deal that cuts defense like he did" (I think the U.S. spends waaay too much on the military)

Enough of this, the republicans are going to lose this race. On Q3 Gillespie again is talkin like a liberal. He needs to hold the center-right , but he's apprsling to the center left.  Warner has that locked down and is encroaching on the center - right.  Gillespie is debating like he has his right solidified, and he clearly doesn't.  Warner by temperament and votes has proven to be Republican friendly. 

Republicans should be running a base election in Virginia where they appeal to the hardcore to outnumber the left. It can work in 2014 because they will outnumber  moderates and liberals.  Probably not in 2016, but that's not today.