Sunday, May 1, 2016

Cruz could win even if Trump gets magical 1,237 delegates!

The media and #Nevertrump crowd are not thinking very open-minded about the potential Republican contested convention.  First, there's this notion that if Trump gets 1,237 delegates "won" during the primary/caucus/convention process, then he wins.  If not, then no candidate will get a majority in the first ballot of the RNC, and Ted Cruz would have a big advantage because the actual people who atre the voting delegates support him over Trump.  This would be due to the Cruz campaign doing the hard political work during the selection process that Trump neglected to do, and also because the base of the party simply supports Cruz over Trump.

But this is all actually not true!

This is what many of the elites both political and press want to be true, but they themselves report its not true if you listen close.  What they're doing is defining the process of what they will declare as legitimate.  That's why others need to counter their bias.

The truth is before the convention begins, the rules committee, made up of select delegates from each state will determine every rule for THIS YEAR'S convention!  The media is talking about prior conventions.  Usually the rules are reaffirmed each time, but this is a time when that very well might not happen.

After this committee recommends, all the delegates vote to accept the
Rules on Day 1 of the convention.  Then, the rules are set for 2016.

So as of today, THERE ARE NO RULES!

I suggest that the rules be:


1. First ballot 67% to end process and declare winner
2.  Second ballot 60% to end process and declare a winner
3.  Third ballot and beyond, 50% to win.

You might think this not democratic right? To demand a candidate get 2/3 of the delegates?  But remember, this whole process was never designed to be democratic.  Our country and the Republican Party process was designed to be REPUBLICAN or indirect democracy rather than majority rules. Thst's how we have an electoral college in the first place.  At our country's founding, the state legislators voted for our President.  As the years wore on, the process has become more transparent and democratic but not completely.  To this day, the winner of the popular vote can lose the election.

I chose 2/3 on 1st ballot because those are the thresholds we have for very important changes in our country.  A Constitutional amendment can't be passed by majority vote in Congress.  Same for over-riding a Presidentsl veto, or removal from office after impeachment.


I chose 60% on 2nd ballot because almost every major legislation in the Congress needs 60 votes to break filibuster from the minority.  Once again this is important to ensure the idea has broad support or is at least not totally objectionable to a significant minority.

Then a simple majority after that doe obvious reasons.

Realize under most normal circumstances these proposed rules changes wouldn't change much because most nominations are unanimous.  The question is what should parties do when significant numbers disagree with the leading vote getter.

This forces the leading vote getter in a contested convention to actually work hard to secure the votes of the actual people rather than an automatic delegate process.

It's said that Cruz has enough support from the delegates to win on a 2nd ballot, based on current rules.  If that's so, these delegates can write rules to make that a reality.

The media needs to recognize this as a legitimate election outcome, and get the public ready for it.
And Trump's whining.



Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Proof Ted Cruz is too extreme to be President!

Ted Cruz is one of only 2 people with a reasonable chance to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016.  What this means is that he has a real opportunity to win the general election.  Polls show him competitive with the Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton.  And while much has been made of how Donald Trump is not qualified to be Potus and would be a disaster for this country. (He would) the media is ignoring the actual details that Ted Cruz could be worse!   Sure Cruz is not vulgar and has much more discipline than Trump, but he has purposefully and skillfully advanced radical notions throughout his career.  Here's one, I think even he today would find hard to defend:

Ted Cruz advocated a person remain in jail over a decade longer than he should have based on legal errors.  This is a case where he agrees the petitioner was factually innocent of prior offenses.  And had those assertions been raised properly by the defendant or his lawyer, would only have gotten a 2 year sentence for a subsequent crime. Instead Cruz argues to preserve a procedural rule, the man should stay in jail for over ten years more.  Remember, this is not a situation where a convicted person is using legal technicalities.  All sides agree in actual innocence of a prior offense that prompted  sentence enhancer from what it should be of 2 years max to over decade for a  later crime.

Listen to the audio and you'll hear incredulous Supreme Court Justices question Cruz and how he would have a man serve an extra 10 years in prison  when all sides agree he doesn't deserve it.


DRETKE V HALEY  - March 2, 2004
 Supreme Court Audio





Sunday, March 6, 2016

Media narrative: democrats higher turnout!

In Louisiana Primary:

Democrats 306,721 total voters
Republicans 285,609 total voters

In addition, once again as in many places Hillary Clinton was the top vote-getter:

Clinton 222,216
Trump 124,818


Even though this is considered s solid red state this and many southern states could be in contention  in November because

1. if Trump wins the Republican nomination, the Republicans could splinter into pieces
2. If someone wins, his supporters could sit out or go 3rd party (maybe with him)

Donald Trump has come too far to be a non-factor. If he loses the nomination to a mainstream Republican at convention, it will have been a robbery.  Otherwise is Cruz or Rubio win somehow, he can't legitimately support them after all they've said about each other.  They've gone way too far.

So a Hillary Clinton could be super strong, and Republican can be super weak and this election could be a massive blowout!

Let's hope so!

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Primary politics: Rubio v Clinton

Going into the big South Carolina primary for the Democrats and Super Tuesday for both parties,
Both races are at an important crossroad.  Here's what will happen:

SC

Hillary 61%
Sanders 37%

Tuesday

Vermont

Sanders  62%
Clinton 35%

Hillary literally wins every other state

Sanders leaves race....


On Republican side, much more complicated:

Texas

Cruz 47
Trump 35
Rubio 15

Georgia

Rubio 29
Trump 27
Cruz  25

Virginia

Rubio 32
Trump 29
Cruz 20

Oklahoma

Cruz. 39
Trump 32
Rubio 28

Alabama

Cruz 31
Rubio 30
Trump 27

Trump blowout wins: Vermont, Mass, Tenn, Minn, Col, Ark, Alaska


So seven big wins for Trump

But Cruz picks up momentum with 3 big wins

And Rubio barely stays in the game with 2 squeakers.
Rubio will go on to win Florida later in the month.

Kasich will drop out of race, so Trump will win Ohio.

This race is going to the convention!


Tuesday, February 23, 2016

What disqualifies Trump?

Whether Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination or not, the disturbing truth emerging is that the Conservative party of America is willing to support so many not so Conservative behaviors and policy positions.  In addition, Trump's support of demogogic policies that inflame the passions of the massss is the reason our founders created a republic instead of a democracy.  It's shameful, much of what he's said.


 I will try to count them up until Trump loses.  If he loses.

Trump curses on campaign trail

Trump: Ban Muslims coming into country

Claimed President Bush and admin lied about Iraq

irresponsible rhetoric about Mexicans

Inappropriate comments about Megyn 

Insulting John McCain's military service

Criticizing the Pope