It’s a good proposition in electoral politics that if something hasn’t happened in the past, it won’t happen next time until something really big changes.
Since 2000, No Presidential battleground state has voted for a Democrat or Republican if that state hadn’t already voted for a member of their party for Potus, Governor or Senator in the past 4 years.
So based on history Trump will win Florida because Obama was last to win office as Democrat in Florida in 2012. Since then Democrats have lost the Governor race 2x, potus, 2 senate seats. Not gonna happen for Biden! Same for Texas. Same for Georgia.
Good news is Democrats CAN win:
Arizona elected Sinema to Senate
Wisconsin elected Tony Evers Governor
Michigan elected Gretchen Wilmer Governor
Ohio elected Sherrod Brown Senator
North Carolina elected Roy Cooper Governor
But count Florida, Georgia, Texas out because they have rejected the Democratic message consistently and aren’t going to change at the Presidential level.
2000 election
Bush won West Virginia which was a flip from 2000 but Cecil Underwood was governor
2004 election
Bush won New Mexico which was a flip from 2000 but Pete Domenici was US Senator
Bush won Iowa which was a flip from 2000 but Chuck Grassley was US Senator
2008 election
Obama won North Carolina but John Edwards was Senator
Obama won Indiana but Evan Bayh was Senator
Obama won Missouri but Claire McCaskill was Senator
Obama won Virginia but Tim Kaine was Governor
Obama won Florida but Bill Nelson was Senator
2012
States went as expected.
2016
Trump won Michigan, which had R Snyder governor
Trump won Pennsylvania which had Pat Toomey Senator
Trump won Wisconsin which had Scott Walker Governor
1 comment:
Welp! This was wrong! Biden won Georgia and had no shot in Ohio. Overall still a good way to approach analysis though
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