10/16 47.19 46.64
Rand 49.66 45.51
Gallup 46 50
Reuters 46 43
IBD/TIPP 47.3 45.7
Rasmussen 47 49
The Gallup and Rasmussen polls are much more watched in the MSM and on the internet. Rand and Reuters are internet polls done in a scientific way. IBD had the best record in 2004 and 2008. So since this is the best we got, I'm going to report them and comment.
I think the President is ahead in this race by about 4 points. I would suspect the Rand numbers are accurate. There are a number of biases that hurt his standing in many of the polls: spanish speakers, less enthusiastic voters, and bad methodology that overemphasize "likely voter" status. Spanish speakers would be less likely to answer polls and there may be a language gap. Less enthusiastic voters won't take the time to answer polls as much as others. An unlikely voter who votes counts the same as a likely voter. In a presidential race, this is especially important. In a small-town race with low media attention, likely voter means much more than in a national race that everyone's talking about.
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