Tuesday, October 16, 2012

poll of tracking polls pre-debate: all tied up!

                  Obama         Romney
10/16          47.19            46.64

Rand            49.66          45.51  
Gallup            46               50
Reuters           46               43
IBD/TIPP      47.3            45.7
Rasmussen      47               49

The Gallup and Rasmussen polls are much more watched in the MSM and on the internet.  Rand and Reuters are internet polls done in a scientific way.  IBD had the best record in 2004 and 2008.  So since this is the best we got, I'm going to report them and comment.

I think the President is ahead in this race by about 4 points.  I would suspect the Rand numbers are accurate. There are a number of biases that hurt his standing in many of the polls:  spanish speakers, less enthusiastic voters, and bad methodology that overemphasize "likely voter" status.  Spanish speakers would be less likely to answer polls and there may be a language gap.  Less enthusiastic voters won't take the time to answer polls as much as others.  An unlikely voter who votes counts the same as a likely voter.  In a presidential race, this is especially important.  In a small-town race with low media attention, likely voter means much more than in a national race that everyone's talking about.

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