Sunday, October 14, 2012

How I'm sure Obama is winning

The latest poll out of Georgia  has... Romney winning 51 to 43.

The results from this poll prove that Obama is truly poised to win big nationwide on election day as of now.

no, not the above results,


"Your best guess, who do you think will win the election:"

Obama 54
Romney 37

There is a rigorous study that shows that:

Voters expectations are a  more reliable predictor of the future than voter preference.

In a state where Romney is winning comfortably, the voters' best guess is that the President will win re-election is very important.  This betrays the true emotions of the electorate as they live their lives.  Whether through co-workers, family, media impressions, etc.

This is not to say it can't change, but the fact that it DIDN'T change after the first debate in a solid red state shows how strong the POTUS position is in this election.

If the polling remains ambiguous or even a little pro-Romney, look for polls that ask this question in swing and red states especially to determine who will win.

Obviously if it changes towards Romney by election day...

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