Friday, September 7, 2012

prediction: Obama will win election!

I've referenced this metric before, comparing the 2004 tv audience for the national conventions.  Now the data is in for the2012  big acceptance speeches:

President Obama 35.7 million viewers   54%
Gov. Romney 30. 3 million viewers    46%

remember in 2004:

Republicans -16,809,000 households 51.9%
Democrats - 15537,000 households 48.1%

This measurement when available seems to me to be more reliable than polling that has to figure out demographics and weighting issues.  I'm thinking  didn't work in 2008 because Romney introduced Palin right before the convention and people were curious to see her.

The President will win reelection comfortably,  If he does get to 54%, I think many of the marginal swing states come his way, including maybe a few new ones.  These include North Carolina, Florida, and maybe even Missouri.

Very similar in ratio to the First Lady and Mrs. Romney speech comparison.  Back in 2004 as the above link shows, Bush/Kerry comparisons almost mirrored the final results in the election perfectly.
It makes you think that the GOTV, the debates, and all the campaigning really don't matter that much.

Imagine if one candidate just sat it out and won, we could be rid of these long campaigns.

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