Thursday, September 6, 2012

Obama will win election! very comfortably

here's why I think this:

Comparing the interest in Ann Romney and the first night of the Republican convention
Comparing the interest in the First Lady and the first night of the Democratic convention.

Michelle Obama bragging rights

The Nielsen Co. said about 26.2 million people watched the opening night of the Democratic National Convention on Tuesday in Charlotte, N.C., where the first lady was the featured speaker.
Last week, Nielsen said 22.3 million watched the first night of the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla., where potential first lady Ann Romney talked about her husband, Mitt. The same number of viewers watched the Democrats' first night in 2008, when Michelle Obama was also the featured speaker.

Using simple math:

Obama 54% (26.2)
Romney 46% (22.3)

This is the natural state of the race.  But remember the President is facing an unprecented assault from outside groups that are outspending the Democratic side by multiples.  In addition, the press wants to enjoy this race as long as possible.  For them, that means constantly "balancing" out the tilt of the race.  So, expect the press to prop Romney up so they can enjoy their jobs.  Would you want to cover a political race where everyone thinks it's over?

I'm interested to see if President Obama's speech similarly outpaces Romney's or not.  And whether the President could actually get these results at the ballot box.

If the President's speech is extremely more watched than Romney then obviously the metric isn't exact.  If the speech dips below Romney then it is probably meaningless.

But so far, I like this idea.


While the idea didn't fit in 2008, presumably because the conventions weren't comparable, as John McCain used the RNC to introduce and boost Sarah Palin, take a look at 2004:

Republicans -16,809,000 households  51.9%
Democrats   - 15537,000 households 48.1%

No comments: