Tuesday, September 21, 2010

registered voters wo vote decide elections not likely voters

The media is now determined to explain that Republicans are in much better shape than Democrats because their voters are more "likely" and energized to vote.

But this is only true in so far as the media convinces Democrats to get depressed.

Take the Gallup poll, which each week puts out a "generic" vote test. A few weeks ago the Republicans were up 7 and 10 points. Recently, 2 out the past three weeks Democrats have been tied, and today are up 1 up point. This doesn't support the Republican wave theory. So we must go deeper! The republicans are more enthusiatic. They are more likely to vote, so as Gallup says, a tied ballot will likely result in a Republican victory.

Well let's get this straight, Republicans up by 10 is a Republican wave.
Democrats up by one is a Republican wave?

Either change the methodology, stop reporting misleading polls, or be honest and say you don't know. Don't choose to spin based on what is popular right now.

Democrats need to turn out "unlikely voters". It shouldn't be that hard. In many states there's early voting. Also, you only get to (have to) vote one time on one day. It's not like it's a long term commitment.

A Democratic surge is possible if the people running the party can develop a way to ge registered voters who lean Democratic to vote.

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