Monday, January 18, 2010

Coakley is (not) in trouble! (updated)

New poll release has me fired up!
It's a tie ball game, and our ground game can win!

With every recent poll showing Scott Brown winning, and even this "Democratic" poll showing Brown 51 - Coakley 46:

It looks like my prediction of Coakley 56% - Brown 41% will not happen.

I'm looking at the publicpolicypolling and wondering if this poll is correct:

With an electorate that claimed they voted for Obama 56 McCain 37

The poll says President's Obama's approval rate is: 44, with 43 disapproving.

I don't believe this, unless every undecided is leaning towards the Obama.

I'm thinking the electorate will wind up with an Obama approval rate of : 57.

With that, I think Coakley should still be able to hold 50.1% of them in the Democratic camp.

As it is, I think if Coakley really is at 46% without the Get Out The Vote organization, Democrats should be able to get 5% points.

Using a ballpark figure of around 2 million voters. Which would be an incredibly high turnout:

Let's assume without any GOTV efforts:

Brown 1,020,000 51%
Coakely 920000 46%

That means the Democratic machine has produce over 100,000 votes on election day.
It's possible. So we might as well hope.

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