Monday, November 12, 2007

Guiliani will easily lose General election

Rudy has convinced many in the Republican establishment and the MSM that he will be a great general election candidate. It is CW that his biggest problem is securing the Primary nomination given the Conservative electorate. So for the past year Rudy has been tailoring his message towards them by highlighting his support for low taxes, smaller govt., tough on defense, etc. Also, he has been engaging in the ancient ritual of sending "signals" that he won't be cultural warrior against the GOP. By forming a Judicial advisory comte. stocked full of Conservatives like Ted Olsen, and refining his former stances concerning guns and immigration, Guiliani has assuaged the fears of the intellectual Right.

Yet, in the end however, the Conservtive Party of America is poised to nominate a person who legitimately is to the Left of Hillary Clinton.

Can Republicans be this STUPID?

Surely they must know the perils of election-year transformations and the appearance of insincerity and weakness. They've capitalized on it in campaigns against John Kerry, Al Gore, and of course Dukasis in 1988.

For starters the general election is really pretty simple:

With Hillary as the Democratic nominee, she starts out with 248 electoral votes, and must go over the 270 top with some combination of:

Florida 27

Ohio 20

Virginia 13

Indiana 11

Colorado 9

Iowa 7

Arkansas 6

New Mexico 5

New Hamshire 4

Otherwise the Republican will win. I use the Democrat because their path/task is really simple. The only state that was a tossup that Kerry won was New Hampshire, so I subtracted that out of the core Democratic tally.

The initial promise of Rudy was that he would put some of the blue 248 e.v. in play and possible win some of them. However, HE HAS ALREADY LOST THEM. Here's why:

1. Pat Roberson and all he stands for.

2. By agreeing to nominate strict constructionists to SC, he is now pro-life. Which opens him up to both flip-flop and being "anti-choice"

3. By changing his stance on illegal immigration, this will help in the red but defeat him in the blue. When push comes to shove, mod. and dem. who want to be tough on illegals will still vote Dem in blue states, but the Republican rhetoric has guaranteed a surge among the illegals' supporters/family who can vote.

As a pro-choice, pro gun control, pro immigration, pro gay-rights republican (similar to Arnold, Bloomberg) California, NY, Penn, Conn, etc. would be in play because Democrats only win in those states because of their social liberalism, while the voters tolerate the rest of the Dem agenda.

Rudy has forfeited all of this.

While the Dems will have to spend more money than in the past,

Hillary will not lose 1 blue state.

HOWEVER because

Rudy stayed with a Gay couple while divorcing his second wife, who he was cheating on with his current wife.

One of his wives was also his cousin.

Rudy filed a lawsuit to hold gun manufacturers responsible for gun deaths.

Rudy ran a sanctuary city in NY that tried to help illegals live better lives.

Rudy endorsed Bernie Kerik for Homeland Security.

Rudy has dressed in drag.

Hillary will put all of the above RED states truly in play. The 3rd party ads against Rudy will be brutal. While Hillary can't run them or co-ordinate them (nor would she want to) , think about it:

"While he was cheating on his second wife with his now 3rd wife, Rudy stayed with a gay couple whom he promised to marry once it became legal. Call Rudy and tell him, those aren't (insert the state) values".


They show Rudy in one of his "drag" routines dressed as a woman, and again say "Call Rudy and tell him, if we want our Presidential candidates to wear skirts, we know someone who wears them better than you."

There is no way the Conservative vote won't be depressed in the Red states.

This, in addition to the numerous Red state choices for VP will flip at least a few red states. Democrats have a foothold in all of the above swing states that they didn't have in 2000 and 2004.

My choice is for the Repubicans to take Rudy on now and bring him down. We should have a Conservative vs Liberal fight in 2008. I can't believe the Republicans have let Rudy get this far, but maybe now the paid ads will bring him down. I hope so.

The Republicans are right on many issues, and hold the moral high ground on many others.

Even though, I'm Pro-choice, I understand we need a standard bearer to make the moral case against abortion. It is necessary to stop the decline in our culture. Rudy won't make that case.

The problem with Pres. Bush is that he doesn't make a sustained forceful case for cultural conservatism. He used the "values voters". Now the Republicans seem to be moving even farther away both in rhethoric and fact.

This is a shame.

For the Republicans I support Huckabee because he will make the case against cultural liberalism that has gone way over the top, yet I know he won't win.

Craig Farmer

making the word "liberal" safe again!

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