Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Election predictions!

US Senate:

NC:  Hagan wins.  She's been even or ahead for awhile in a Republican year.  No reason to think she won't bring it home in a state that has a history of electing Democrats sometimes.

Georgia:  Perdue wins.  This is a Red state that will elect a Republican in a contested race.  Nunn's only chance would be to have a "local" election that is about the Republican.  Not so, this one is nationalized. I predict no runoff.

Alaska:  Sillivan wins.  Begich barely won last time against sacandal-plagued Ted Stevens.  That was in a more favorable year for Democrats.  This time Republicans will unite to win this seat easily.

Iowa:  Braley wins.  Democrats have the advantage when there's early voting because they can get "unlikely" voters easier.  Plus Iowa doesn't elect females too quickly. Iowa is more blue than red in a contested national race.

Arkansas:  Pryor wins.  He is the more natural southern candidate of the two.  He has a family history.  Pryor has the Clintons to help him.

Kentucku:  McConnell wins.  He is the more natural fit.  The state hates Obama, and Grimes is with Obama.  No way a conservative state ousts the Republican leader in a Republican year.

Col:  Udall wins.  Early voting, "unlikely" voters.  Any close race in this state go with the Democrat.

NH: Shaheen wins.  She has been winning all along.  She has deep ties to the state.  Brown lost in Mass, but win in NH? Not buying it.

La:runnoff.  if seat is needed for senate control Cassidy wins, otherwise Landreui wins.  Once the election doesn't matter much, Landreui calls in favors and her machine matters.  I predict Dems win Senate on election night so this runoff will be low turnout and intensity.  Democrat wins.

So Democrats hold Senate easily.
Republicans gain 18 house seats even though nationwide Democrats will lose generic vote by less than 1 point.


Mass gov:  Baker wins.  No one likes Coakley.  She will have lost 2 winnable races for Democrats. She is only good in low intensity elections.

Wi gov: Walker wins.  Off year elections, Democratic leaning voters drop off.  It will only be close because Unions hate Walker so much.

Fl gov:  Crist wins.  Obama won twice, Nelson has won. I think Dems have put more effort to winning this.  Toughest call, but I made it!

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