Saturday, November 3, 2012

How Obama will win by 3 points

This memo from the Obama team gives in detail what I've always suspected:

President Obama will win the national popular vote in large measure because of "unlikely" voters.
Yes, those same voters that almost every poll has eliminated from their surveys for the past month.

It has become common knowledge that the President is doing better among polls of "registered" voters rather than "likely" voters.

The geniuses in the media have either purposefully downplayed the Obama turnout machine or it was just an inconvenient fact.  What would be the purpose of a huge turnout operation if not to turnout out registered voters who were "unlikely" to vote if you didn't encourage and/or help them?

Here's the facts per the memo:

-opened 5117 get-out-the-vote (GOTV) local hubs nationwide
-698799 shifts scheduled for GOTV over the final 4 days of campaign
-1,792,261 new registered voters in battleground states (double that of '08)
-28% of these new voters have already voted
-over 125 million personal contacts nationwide GOTV
-88,000 vote edge in Ohio of sporadic voters

---and on and on.

The President is winning the electoral college and battleground states right now with "likely" voters. But nationwide he is tied or maybe even slightly behind in the popular vote.

This surge of "unlikely" voters into voters who have already voted, and will vote will take what is a near 10 point drop in many blue states to a more manageable 4 point drop nationwide from 2008, and have the President win re-election:

Obama 51.6
Romney 47.9

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