Wednesday, September 26, 2012

proof Quinnipiac polls were legitimate

Three Quinnipiac polls came out that were very favorable to the President:

Florida  53  -  44
Ohio     53   - 43
Penn     54  -  42

Mitt Romney is struggling in all three states.
Now polls can of course change, but the question is whether they are valid today?

One way to answer that question is to look at questions other than the topline that would belie reality:
(6)   Republican candidate for Senate in Penn., whom most polls have way down is only down 6 (49-43)
(7).  Republican Governor and Romney support John Kasich is +13 (48-35) job approval
(14a).  Charlie Crist who is more popular with Democrats is even on approval only (40-40)
(14b) .  Republican Senator  and Romney supporter Marco Rubio is +20 on favorables (47-27). 
(40).  Support for more drilling is over 61% in all three states
(42).  More agreed government doing too much than not enough by solid margins.

So this is all to say, that if the poll was such an outlier and had too many Democratic supporters, how could all the above be true?  Wouldn't those supporters also favor Casey for Senate more?  Have a worse opinion of Kasich and Rubio?  A poll with too many Democrats who support more drilling?  Less government over more government?

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