2012 election update: most important poll result

regardless of who you support: who do you think will win

Obama 59 Romney 37 - cnn poll

This result is much more consistent with predicting the winner than the "horse race" number that can vacillate much more easier.  It works because you're not only asking for the personal opinion of what the person thinks, but what their experience is in their neighborhood and general feeling about the overall race.  It is important to note, this is not a prediction on the actual final margin, but the overall winner.

scientific proof of the above