Wednesday, January 13, 2010

How to look at the Massachussetts senate race honestly

There are polls that vary from the Republican Brown leading by 1 to the Democrat Coakley leading by mid-double digits. There is much political spin from Republicans and the media. The latter is looking for evidence to confirm their "2010 is a bad year for Democrats" theme.

Here's an honest way to look at it, and how I will judge the results. I won't set up a situation where heads Republicans win and Tails, "it was a liberal state anyway".

No way.

Martha Coakley -10 percentage points is the proper way to look at the race.

That means:

Coakley 55%+
Brown and others 45%-

Democrats win and win big! No spin. The Republicans put all their energy to elect another candidate to obstruct the Obama agenda and just like in NY23, the voters chose progress or the party of "no".
Coakley 50-54%
Brown and others 46-49%

This would be the status quo. We retain power but, Democrats we would have a problem.

Brown wins by even 1 vote?

This would be a disaster politically. There is no spin that would be acceptable. It would portend electoral tulmolt. The pundits will have solid evidence to be proven right.


Prediction: see scenario #1
Coakley 56%
Brown 41%
Kennedy 3%

My theory of this political season is that many Democratic voters are "unlikely voters" and by definition are screened out of polls right now. As the actual election moves closer they become available to our party. Think about it, what good would it do to "demonize" the Republicans right now for a November election? The people who will decide this election are focused on sports, American idol, paying bills, etc. The reality is they will only care for the amount of time it takes to stand in line to vote. By the way make sure the line isn't too long. The Democrats over the next week will make the right moves to mobilize "unlikely" voters in Mass. It will work on election day. Then the next day they won't care again.

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