Thursday, October 30, 2008

Sometimes in political advertising:Less is more

Recently Obama has seen his poll numbers rise in many states that seemed totally lost in September.

For Example in Georgia:

McCain 52

Obama 47

Early on this year, Obama set out to put many "red" states in play, but cut back on them in September. Most observers saw this as a nod to reality of the Electoral Map; and (relatively) sluggish fundraising at the time.

Now, as Obama has dominated the past 6 weeks through this Financial crisis, you might wonder why not rush back in to Georgia, Montana, and some other red states, even Arizona that are closing in to less than 5 points?

The answer may very well be that Less exposure and attention from Obama is actually increasing his chances of winning.

McCain has to budget his time and money between trying to hold on to Republican states and also trying to steal at least one big blue state.

This means that there are numerous states that are being left alone.

The net result of this is a benefit to Obama.

For example:

African Americans in every state will be for Obama enthusiastically without any campaigning or prompting from Obama. The same is true for certain young and liberal voters. That means Obama can get an energized left while not energizing the right.

However, a campaign presence in that state would stoke of the natural tendencies of the voters to get involved and the Republican bias would re-assert itself.

So it could very well be that Georgia at McCain +5 with no campaign, would go to McCain +8 with an aggressive Obama effort. Democrats might add 3 points to their total with the Republican backlash being 5 extra points for McCain.

On the other hand, if somehow the press and the election events depress the Republican vote in these states, and yet the Obama surge still materializes, we could see an upset.

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