Today's most important poll number!

Gallup Daily Tracking

Obama 45
McCain 45

This is the baseline result before the inclusion of artificial media boosts that will make the Obama-Biden ticket look much better than it will actually perform.

1. The selection of Biden will probably give Obama a boost of 6 points to 48 - 42.
2. The Democratic Convention will probably get Obama to 53 - 39.

In the big scheme of things, the next week is meaningless in a positive sense for Obama because it's not solid. If somehow something negative happens it could be fatal for his candidacy.

The fact is, this is a dead-heat race with the political ground moving against Obama:

1. Colorada has an Affirmative Action ban on the ballot. This will force Obama to choose the future or the past. The future is to base preferences on economic need. Obama has signaled this. The past is racial preferences. I predict Obama will oppose the ban which will strip him of his "change" message and give McCain the moral high ground in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and other swing states.

2. Iraq will not be an issue becaus ethe U.S. will win. Obama will get pummeled on this issue because we as a nation will pursue his basic withdrawal plan but he won't get credit because he was willing to do it in defeat, while McCain will withdraw in victory.

3. Energy policy is detrimental to democrats because we are making a long-term elitist approach that panders to the environmentalists. John McCain has a moderate plan that touches every possible solution more rationally.

Eventually the Democratic position will lose out.

Later I will discuss how Obama can win.

The tide is turning against Democrats.