Tuesday, July 8, 2008

2008 election analysis

The above update is my analysis as to the closest states in the 2008 election. The other 32 + D.C. are expected to go as usual and bigger than 12 points. As of today, Senator Obama is cruising to a victory. The 306 electoral votes seems like a conservative estimate and most likely is his "floor". Unless something totally changes the media dynamics, and the general tone of the race, McCain has no chance to win. McCain would have to "throw a long ball" and complete it, just to have a chance. While some states are close in terms of margin of victory, they are not that close in terms of reversing the actual winner.
A "long ball" for McCain would be like:
1. getting a Colin Powell on the ticket to make the case that Obama is too dangerous to be POTUS.
2. ditto, #1 with Condi Rice

They both have enough credibility in the black community to make that case and not get the "hillary" treatment. They have avoided the Clarence Thomas label, and engender respect despite disagreement on many issues.

3. promote an issue like fully funded school vouchers at the federal level- that will split the democratic base

4. Declare himself a 1 term President--who will be bipartisan and work to fix Social Security/Medicare and win War on Terror, and then pick Lieberman or some other moderate who can't be elected President as his vice president.

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