Saturday, August 25, 2012

Why Obama will win despite Republican money

Mitt Romney and super pacs supporting him are on pace to dramatically outspend the President.  Many have said the coming onslaught of Romney ads and the Republican's tens of millions of dollars advantage wil be devastating to President Obama's reelection chances.  Here's what they are missing:

1.  At a certain point, there really is no advantage.  As of today, roughly Obama has $120+ million, and Romney will have $170+ million.  But that $50 million difference isn't the same as one side having 0 and the other $50 million.  Or something like $15 million to $65 million.    This is similar to the Cold War.  Once both sides get enough material to blow up the world, there is MAD.  The rest is just meaningless nonsense.

2.  There are some things money can't buy.  There are 7 weeks until the election.  Romney just can't start today and ramp up a top notch get out the vote plan, no matter how much money he spent in that area.  It takes long term planning and cultivation of the right of the people.  .He could try.  Which might work for him or against him.

3.  The value of money decreases with size.  If you do something well at first it is a big deal. But after awhile people get tired of it.  So the Republicans will have to be really creative to find ways to spend extra money in a beneficial way, that otherwise they couldn't do if the money was equal.

4.  The President can counteract a money deficit in a way that Romney can't.  He is POTUS.  He can hold at least 2 press conferences that will be covered by every news network, and will set the agenda for the next days news reporting.  Since the press has been complaining that he hasn't had one, they have set him up to do it.

5.  If the money really began to matter, then the President would be able to raise extra money practically overnight.  His biggest obstacle to doing this now is that most people believe he will win no matter what.  So many potential givers are nursing gripes or disappointments about the first term, rather than truly fearing a re-election loss.

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