Tuesday, May 22, 2012

CraigFarmerReport: key poll number

When various polls show a close race, how do you know who will win?

5. (IF SUPPORT OBAMA OR ROMNEY) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Obama/Romney) somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

            very/somewhat     total
Obama   48  43                 91
Romney 23 50                  73

The key number is that Obama has very enthusiatic support more than double Romney.  This after Romney has been through a campaign where he has had a chance to define himself and convince Republicans to support him.  Also, he has the benefit of many people hating the President.

Regardless of any fluctuations in topline numbers.  This very enthusiatic number will foretell the election in terms of who wins. 

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