When various polls show a close race, how do you know who will win?
5. (IF SUPPORT OBAMA OR ROMNEY) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Obama/Romney) somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
Obama 48 43 91
Romney 23 50 73
The key number is that Obama has very enthusiatic support more than double Romney. This after Romney has been through a campaign where he has had a chance to define himself and convince Republicans to support him. Also, he has the benefit of many people hating the President.
Regardless of any fluctuations in topline numbers. This very enthusiatic number will foretell the election in terms of who wins.