Saturday, June 28, 2008

Why Virginia goes for Obama

It's good to look at polls as the media produces and promotes them, but it is even better to take a simple look at history, use common sense and realize:
Virginia is going for Obama in November. And that many other Red states are close to following.

If you look at the data From the past 3 major elections in the state, Democrats start out with a floor of 45%

2000 election:

Gore 45%
Nader 2%

Robb (senate) 48%

2004 election:

Kerry 46%

2006 election:

Webb 49%

In 2006, Webb lost 15% of the African American vote when it was 16% of the electorate.
In 2004, Kerry lost 12% of the African American vote when it was 21% of the electorate.

All signs point to Obama matching Kerry among white voters, but

Obama is losing only 7% of the African American vote projected at 18% of the electorate. This in a poll that gave him a 49-42 lead from May.

Simple logic would tell you that absent some incredible event, the African American vote will rise from the 21% in 2004. My guess would be to about 25%. Also, as the election gets closer, expect the Obama-McCain split in the black community to go to 93 Obama - 4McCain-3 other.

All of this while Obama will hold every Kerry voter. This puts Obama over the 50% Webb mark using simple demographics.

The only potential problem is "white flight" as African Americans enthusiasm rises for Obama. However, the Obama campaign is very adept (w/ msm help) at promoting different aspects of his candidancy to varying constituencies. Between his clear move to the center on many issues recently and his V.P. selection, Obama's task is only to hold the moderate Kerry voters. In a year with President Bush seemingly destined to finish with low approval ratings no matter what, this will be an easy task.

The upshot is that the Obama team can safely add Virginia into their blue swing state strategy. It is a state that isn't dependent on a landslide to come in, but rather just a normal democratic victory.

Virginia Early Prediction:

Obama 51
McCain 48

Other states that can easily follow this model:

North Carolina: Kerry had 44 with Bush getting 14% of the black vote
Georgia: Kerry had 41 with Bush getting 56% of latino and 12% black vote. This totaled 29% (25 black 4 latino). In 2008 this combo could total 35% with blacks moving to 29% and Latinos to 6%

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