Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Media shilling for Obama again

Nico Pitney over at the Huffingtonpost is representative of the msm that never stops trying to help Obama. He is wrong:

"A closer look at the exit polls shows some notably positive trends" for Obama.
Obama actually won more support than Clinton from voters who made up their minds in the last three days (46 percent to 38 percent), in the last week (39-31) and in the last month (47-40).
Clinton did defeat Obama among Floridians who decided on a candidate on the day of the primary. But overwhelmingly, Clinton's support came from those who made up their minds over a month ago (63 percent to 27 percent), and from early voters who used absentee ballots (50-31). Floridians began receiving absentee ballots in
late December.
According to the exit polls, those early deciders and early voters made up fully 59 percent of Florida's Democratic electorate.
The results seem to indicate that Obama picked up significant momentum in Florida following his victories in Iowa and South Carolina, as well as his high-profile endorsements (49 percent of Florida voters said Ted Kennedy's support was important to their decision).

Here's why this is false and misleading. First they are conflating the early voters who voted in December and early January with the people WHO DECIDED EARLY and voted yesterday.
That is the relevant mark because anyone who voted yesterday, had a chance to be a late-decider. If they chose Hillary months ago and never changed, they are ignored by the MSM, yet they actually did decide in the last 3 days TO STICK WITH HILLARY:

CNN EXIT polls

Absentee/early voters (not yesterday) C50 O31 E14
Yesterday in person voting
OBAMA 34.54

this is calculated by:

start with
people who decided in last 3 days 17%
people who decided before that 56%
early absentee 26%

Tha means 73 percent voted yesterday, so

Clinton (.73 * 53)=38.69 + ( .27*35)=9.45 which totals 48.14
Obama (.73*34)=24.82 + (.27*36)=9.72 which totals 34.54
Edwards (.73*12)=8.76 + (.27*23)=6.21 which totals 14.97

No comments: