Monday, January 28, 2008

Hillary Clinton has a clear path to Winning

Coming out of South Carolina it is Hillary Clinton who truly has the momentum. You might ask how can a person who was blown out of a Primary actually be the one who you'd rather be than Obama? Simple.

Ask yourself, who needs to make an adjustment going forward in order to win the nomination?

If the election froze and what happened in South Carolina is replicated throughout the country, Hillary wins:

whites 3 -2 for Clinton
hispanics 2 -1 for Clinton (from Nevada)
blacks 4 - 1 for Obama

On average, the electorates will be 85% whites and hispanics. That allows Hillary to have a comfortable win going forward.

Ever since New Hampshire:

South Carolina

Hillary has faced an electorate that benefits her. True, this formula got her destroyed in S.C. and part of that price is negative press, but remember:

1. The State of the Union is Monday Night (tonight)
2. Florida votes tomorrow and absent an enormous bounce Hillary will win. Even though "no delegates" are at stake. This nominating process is all about winning news cycles and storylines until Super Tuesday and other important voting days.

It is Obama who has to find a way to win more Hispanic and white votes if everything stays the way it is in S.C.

Hillary's job is to make sure Edwards doesn't get any head of steam because he pulls from her.

On a side note, I have never seem such immature voting on the part of an ethnic group that was supposedly ready for primetime. Of course I'd expect Mormons to all vote for Romney but people say the country is ready for an African American President. If so, African Americans aren't ready. In a primary where there are NO issues. This was a chance in South Carolina to be fair: Edwards was the most articulate of what most blacks believe. That the system is rigged and that we need to attack it. Yet, he was almost completely shut out of the black vote. This was a sign of racism in the black community. Sadly, its' a sign that African Americans aren't ready to enter into the political mainstream as equal participants. They are more comfortable being protestors and an outside interest group. If blacks want to vote for the black guy, I think America will rightfully reject that guy. He wasn't chosen because he was the most qualified. Unless someone wants to argue that 80 percent of blacks know better than the whole rest of the country who split more evenly for these candidates repeatedly.

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