Wednesday, December 12, 2007

NH Poll: Hillary up 1

Update: According to a new WHDH poll has Hillary up 7 in NH

This CNN/WMUR poll catches the Oprah-Obama bounce that I predicted in the states where O-O visited.

You can see proof that Hillary is in great shape by the internals:

“Clinton’s support among Democratic women in New Hampshire has dropped from 43 percent to 33 percent,” Holland said. “By contrast, her support among men dropped only one point to 27 percent in that same time period.”

It is clear that she can regain female support.

I choose to involve the 5 percent m.o.e. here : Clinton31 Obama 30 (all dem voters)

Clinton 36 - 26 = 36
Obama 25 - 35 = 25

If the election froze today, I would expect the Obama mania to dissolve and Clinton to win 36 - 25.

It is reasonable to look at Clinton in the most optimistic, and Obama in the most pessismistic because over the past 2 months Obama has received nearly 100% positive media, and Hillary has obviously been the reverse.

That is likely to subside as the voting nears which means Hillary is due for a bump and Obama a slide.

These polls measure emotional impacts, so as informed consumer you have to look past the moment.

Hillary is still on track to win every state.

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