Election Simulation: Dems take House 232 seats; Senate tied

Election Sim — tonight's draw (40 days out, Election Day Nov 3)

Here's one election night, drawn fresh from the model:

The headline is Texas. James Talarico beats Ken Paxton 49.1 to 48.4 —
the first Democratic senator from Texas since 1988 — and two hours
later Gina Hinojosa edges Greg Abbott 49.5 to 48.6 for governor. The
data-center backlash was real, the polls were right, and Texas finally
broke. It's the double-flip that defines the night.

But the Senate still slips through Democrats' fingers. They flip North
Carolina (Cooper by 4), Ohio (Brown by 2), and Alaska (Peltola by 3 in
ranked-choice) — then lose New Hampshire, where John Sununu edges
Chris Pappas 48.9 to 48.5 in a race not called until 1am. And Maine:
Susan Collins does it again, beating Troy Jackson 50.2 to 47.8 and
outperforming her polls by 5, just like 2020. Net Democratic gain: 3.
The chamber sits at 50-50, and JD Vance's tiebreak keeps it red. Four
flips, and it still isn't enough — that's the cruelty of this map.

House: Democrats 232, Republicans 203. A genuine suburban wave, but
the new Southern gerrymanders hold the line and it's 2018's little
brother, not its twin.

Governors: Democrats take Texas and Ohio (Acton beats Ramaswamy by 2);
Republicans hold Florida (Donalds by 3 — the registration edge was too
much); Alaska is too close to call in ranked-choice rounds.

Context: model has D House 87%, D Senate 58% — tonight's draw is one
of the 42-in-100 nights where the Senate breaks red.

BETS FOR TODAY
- Susan Collins (R) wins Maine — the bet of the day. Down ~3 in the
polls, but she beat her 2020 polls by 9 and tonight's sim has her
holding. If she's priced as the dog, that's the underdog ticket.
- Republicans hold the Senate — market ~35%, model ~42%. Tonight's
50-50 map is precisely how it happens.
- Talarico (D) wins Texas Senate — polls average him +2; if the market
still prices him as the dog, that's mispriced.
- Hinojosa (D) wins Texas governor — the true lottery ticket. Polls
are tied, history says no, the sim says it's live.

2028 Democrats headed toward the midterms

1. Jon Ossoff is currently on track to win a Senate seat in a swing state of Georgia. If he wins by 1 vote, he should be the instant front runner.

2. Josh Shapiro is currently on track to win re-election in a crucial state for a Democrat. He needs to win by high double digits minimum. Then he needs to build a winning coalition in the party 

3.  Kamala Harris is the only woman who can win the nomination. She needs to develop an assertive public personality and overcome the burdens of gender/race

4. Wes Moore, if he wins re election bigger than Shapiro, avoids any scandal, and Harris doesn’t run… he’d be #2

5. JB Pritzker - if he wins re-election, Dems win that Senstate seat w/ Stratton his endorsed candidate and Rahm Emanuel doesn’t run… he’d has a chance 

6. Rahm Emanuel - impressive candidate with a defined messsge. Needs major collapses by many people. In fact he would benefit from Democratic under performance in 2026 

Democrats and school reform

 Democrats should be the party of Education because as a group they’re willing to use the government to do the right thing regardless of the cost.  We have the cost party down just fine.  We are spending enough as a nation on education. Our problems are about the culture in our schools, and thr politics on the activist Left. To dramatically improve our schools, the approach thst works is clear:

1. High Standards 

2. Discipline + proper rewards 

3. Focus on the basics 

As a party we need to set a goal that every child will reach their potential. This is different for each student. We need to have policies that allow competition towards excellence and achievement

There needs to be an orderly learning environment where excellence is rewarded and failure is not accepted. 

Instead of expanding what is presented in terms of Arts, Music, Emotionsl well being, even foreign languages… reading, writing and math. If we focus on those, the rest will take care of themselves. 

There are trade offs to this approach. Some students will not achieve very high, but that’s their best and we need to accept it rather than focusing the resources on them. Others will be removed because they are a disruption and ruin the learning of others.  Some students will reap incredible rewards while others will be average.  We need to prepare students for life. 

We need to work towards a system where good teachers earn way more, and others make less or are removed. The goal is student achievement not adult comfort.

Results would rise immediately. 

Kamala Harris shouldn’t run in 2028

 Former Vice President Kamala Harris has had 2 opportunities to become Potus in 2020 and 2024. Both times she was in position to win but failed to make the necessary bold decisions that would lead to a win.  In 2020 she needed to separate from the far left and lead the party the way Joe Biden did.  Had she used that campaign to stand up for enforcing the law while pursuing progressive policies, enforcing the immigration laws while pursuing reform, and defending moderate cultural values against the far left, she would’ve won. In 2024, Harris had to break away from Biden and put an agenda forward that addressed a world Biden never saw coming. A world where Israel wasn't popular, where inflation was out of control, and Trump was becoming more popular. This moment needed a leader to make bold decisions and Harris listened to a failing Biden team.  Joe Biden was a great Potus for 2 years. He was clearly unfit to run for a second term. It was clear, the country would be best suited if Biden focused on his job and let s new generation take over. It was up to Harris to assert herself. She failed. 2 strikes and she’s out. We need bold leadership for 2028. We need new energy and someone who will not be judged by their past runs. Of course if somehow she gets nomination, I will support her, but Democrats need Ossoff, Moore, Besheaer, Shapiro, or someone else new. 

Republican DEI

 Does anyone really believe that the most important positions in the Trump administration are based on merit? 

1. Vice President Vance.    white male 

2. Treasury Secretary Bessent. white male 

3. Defense  Sec Hegseth. white male 

4. Secretary of State Rubio white adjacent Latino male

5. Fed Reserve Chair Warsh white male 

6. HHS SecretaryRFk Jr. white male 

7. Attorney General Todd Blanche white male